. . . 7 Ways to Become an Unsuccessful Trader . . .
Why weekly charts work
28 Aug 2010
Subject: Follow the weekly charts.----------------------------------------------------------------
Many traders get so involved with the market on a daily or even an intraday basis, that they somehow lose out on the bigger picture. Weekly charts are enormously helpful in giving clues to the future direction of the market.
In today's video we examine one of the biggest markets in the world, the S&P 500, using a weekly chart. The video runs about two minutes in length and I think you will find it both educational and informative.
As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
Enjoy the video and be sure to share your thoughts.
Stock Seasonality
24 Jul 2010
Here's an example of how to use Stock Seasonality with Technical Analysis. Data is taken from the Seasonal Stock data at Blashing.com. Click on link for the Free version of AIB Stock Seasonality.Allied Irish Banks (AIB) is a Strong August Monthly Seasonal stock that has been beaten Down along with the European crisis (perfect! timing) . . and here is how I would Trade it:
- wait to Buy after either a good breakout above the 50-dsma or after a Drop towards Support that then starts rising again
- use that Support level to guide your Stop-Loss level .. I'd use a Stop-Loss of a Close under 2.00
Quadrillion Dollar Debt
14 Jul 2010
the "Day of Reckoning" LoomsWhat Will Happen as $1,000,000,000,000,000 in Global Debt Winds Down?
The biggest balloon in the world is deflating. This balloon had been inflated with a quadrillion (10^15) dollars. Which is to say: this balloon was filled not with air but with debt from around the globe.
What will happen as this global debt winds down? In two words, Deflationary Depression -- the likes of which could be unprecedented in history.
A thousand trillion in debt can't be wished away or swept under the rug. No one can "forgive" the debt. The consequences of unwinding this debt could be as massive as the dollar figure itself.
We've heard plenty about the debt problems of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
But how about the world's second largest economy? Consider this fact reported in the Japan Times (July 8):
"Japan's government debts are the highest the world has ever seen, at 219 percent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund."
Then there's the world's sixth largest national economy. In January 2009, Robert Prechter wrote this in the Elliott Wave Theorist:
". . .British banks have amassed $4.4 trillion worth of foreign liabilities, twice Britain's annual GDP. . .England, moreover, 'has not defaulted since the Middle Ages.' The possibility that it may do so again is yet another indication that the bear market is of. . .(larger) degree, exactly as Elliott wave analysts have predicted all along. . ."
Remember, Japan and Great Britain are major world economies. Imagine what the debt totals would look like in a line-item analysis of other nations, regions, states, provinces, and municipalities around the world, including the U.S.
De-leveraging will likely lead to a deflationary crash -- a "day of reckoning".
How can you prepare for a deflationary crash?
To start with, keep your money safe. As Bob Prechter mentions in the June Elliott Wave Theorist: "Investors should be primarily in greenback cash and Treasury bills. . ."
He also describes holdings which should be strictly avoided.
Read the specifics, plus learn what may surprise you -- assets he suggests as a "core position" (besides cash and cash equivalents). Start reading right away by clicking here for your risk-free subscription to the Financial Forecast Service.
by Robert Jay
HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY !!
4 Jul 2010
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.p/o the Declaration of Independence
by the Founding Fathers of the United States of America
My Favorite Books
18 Jun 2010
The future looks . . . bleak
11 Jun 2010
Click on Free Elliott Wave Articles on the Left sidebar top if interested in more information about using Elliott Wave methods and detailed information for your Trading.Robert Prechter
05 Jun 2010
Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: "Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"
The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter's May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.
For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.
Robert Prechter
27 May 2010
Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: "On Schedule for a Very, Very Long Bear Market"
Robert Prechter discussed the recent global sell-off that has sent all major U.S. averages 10% below their 2010 highs with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task on May 20, 2010. Prechter says that the current climate shows that "we're in a wave of recognition" where the fundamentals are catching up to the technicals and that it's time to prepare for a "long way down."
For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.
Sovereign Debt
20 Apr 2010
In 2009, downgrades and debt auction failures in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland and Spain were a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin to put their fiscal houses in order, investors and rating agencies will likely turn from friends to foes. The severe recession, combined with a financial crisis during 2008-09, worsened the fiscal positions of developed countries due to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues and support to the financial sector. The impact was greater in countries that had a history of structural fiscal problems, maintained loose fiscal policies and ignored fiscal reforms during the boom years. Going forward, a weak economic recovery and an aging population is likely to increase the debt burden of many advanced economies, including the U.S., Britain, Japan and several eurozone countries.In 2008 and 2009, the decisions by these governments to do "whatever it takes" to backstop their financial systems and keep their economies afloat soothed investor concerns. But if countries remain biased toward continuing with loose fiscal and monetary policies to support growth, rather than focusing on fiscal consolidation, investors will become increasingly concerned about fiscal sustainability and gradually move out of debt markets they have long considered "safe havens."
Most central banks will withdraw liquidity starting in 2010, but government financing needs will remain high thereafter. Monetization and increased debt issuances by governments in the developed world will raise inflation expectations. These governments will have to offer higher real yields or investors will move to more attractive emerging markets. Some countries will continue to witness increased credit default swaps. Higher yields and interest cost on debt will also hurt economic growth by crowding out private consumption and investment, and reducing government's productive spending. Several factors will likely influence investors' perception about sovereign risk a country's debt financing ability, its status as a "safe haven" relative to other developed economies, politicians' commitment to undertake fiscal reforms, exchange rate movements, and the debt maturity structure.
The UK, Spain, Greece and Ireland will face sovereign risk pressures, especially if their fiscal imbalances are not addressed immediately. Some eurozone members are quickly approaching their debt sustainability limits as deleveraging through devaluation is not an option for these countries. Countries like Germany whose fiscal imbalances have deteriorated largely due to the economic and financial downturn might have a greater capacity to stabilize their debt ratio. The U.S. and Japan might be among the last to face investor aversion the dollar is the global reserve currency and the U.S. has the deepest and most liquid debt markets, while Japan is a net creditor and largely finances its debt domestically. But investors will turn increasingly cautious even about these countries if the necessary fiscal reforms are delayed. The U.S. is a net debtor with an aging population, weaker economic growth and risks of continued monetization of the fiscal deficit. Japan's aging population and economic stagnation will reduce domestic savings.
Developed economies will therefore need to begin fiscal consolidation as soon as 2011-12 by generating primary surpluses, which can be accomplished through a combination of gradual tax hikes and spending cuts. However, an aging population, a sluggish economic recovery and higher unemployment will keep governments' entitlement spending high and revenues subdued. These factors might also make tax hikes politically challenging. Fiscal consolidation efforts might not be strong until the bond vigilantes signal shifting to safer assets. To achieve credibility, governments will need to pass binding legislation enforcing tighter fiscal belts when their economies begin to recover on a sustained basis.
c/o Forbes.com
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Rise 16% as Bank Seizures Set Record
16 Apr 2010
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose 16 percent in the first quarter from a
year earlier and bank seizures hit a record as lenders stepped up action against
delinquent homeowners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
A total of 932,234 homes, or one out of every 138 households, received a default
or auction notice, or were repossessed by banks, the Irvine, California-based
firm said today. In March, filings rose 8 percent to the most in any month since
RealtyTrac began publishing reports in January 2005.
"The banks are finally working through it," Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's executive
vice president for marketing, said in a telephone interview. "We're seeing a
resolution for properties that were in foreclosure but where seizure was delayed."
Unemployed and "underwater" homeowners, or those who owe more than their property
is worth, are driving foreclosures. The U.S. jobless rate was 9.7 percent in March,
unchanged for a third month, the Labor Department reported April 2. More than a fifth
of mortgaged homes were underwater in the fourth quarter, according to real estate
data firm Zillow.com.
Bank repossessions climbed to 257,944 in the quarter. Scheduled auctions totaled
369,491, also the most since RealtyTrac began releasing data.
2010 Forecast
RealtyTrac is forecasting more than 1 million bank seizures this year and at
least 4 million foreclosure filings, both potential records. Foreclosures won't
level off until next year, Sharga said.
Foreclosure prevention efforts such as the U.S. Treasury's Making Home Affordable
Program may have "slowed down the normal foreclosure timeline," James J. Saccacio,
RealtyTrac's chief executive officer, said in today's report.
The number of homes seized by lenders rose 35 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac
said. Auctions increased 21 percent from the same period in 2009.
RealtyTrac reported 304,799 default notices in the quarter, down 1 percent from a
year earlier. The number peaked at more than 342,000 in the third quarter of 2009.
Nevada's Top Rate
Nevada had the highest foreclosure filing rate for the 14th straight quarter.
One in every 33 households got a notice, more than four times the national
average. A total of 34,557 Nevada homes got filings, down 16 percent from a
year earlier, RealtyTrac said.
Arizona had the second-highest rate at one in 49 households, three times the
national average. Florida ranked third with one in 57 households and California
was fourth at one in 62.
Utah ranked fifth, with one in 88 households, and had the biggest annual increase
-- 75 percent -- among states with 10 the highest rates.
The following is a list of the 10 states with the most foreclosure filings in
the first quarter.
State Filings Rate Per Household
California 216,263 1 in 62
Florida 153,540 1 in 57
Arizona 55,686 1 in 49
Illinois 45,780 1 in 155
Michigan 45,732 1 in 99
Georgia 39,911 1 in 101
Texas 37,354 1 in 257
Nevada 34,557 1 in 33
Ohio 33,221 1 in 153
Colorado 16,023 1 in 134
Source: RealtyTrac
Article Source: Bloomberg
Happy Good Friday !!
02 Apr 2010
Good overall
Employment Report for March
was released this morning .. when you
look at the details. Private Sector jobs continue to gain "better than
expected" .. BUT, personal income (wages) have decreased. The number
of Census workers hired was smaller than expected .. so expect much more of
them to be hired in the coming months.
There was not much reaction in either stock-futures nor bonds after the release ...
both moving only slightly positive. So, there's room for manipulation
in either direction come Monday when the Markets Open again.
Have a GREAT weekend all.
a Peek into the Members page
13 Mar 2010
Two weekends ago (28-Feb) StocksDoc recommended in the Members' Section to Open Up
positions (Longs or Call options) in IVAN and ZZ. I noticed
that these two stocks had very good Technical positions while also being
Strongly Seasonal for the week or two after that weekend (thanks to
Blashing.com
).
You can see from their two Charts how well they did since then . . these were
the only two Stocks picked by StocksDoc for that reason that weekend = 100% success!
Elliott Wave Principle
Q&A With Robert Prechter: Why Technical Analysis Beats Out Fundamental Analysis As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun to question its validity. Read More .
Gold: Best Supporting Role In Economic Downturns? Think Again Gold's safe-haven status is based on hype, not history by Nico Isaac Everywhere you look, from the Red Carpet to Wall Street, gold is definitely in "fashion." As for why, one word comes to mind: safe-haven. See, according to the mainstream financial experts, the more unstable the global economy, the greater the appeal for the precious metal. These two charts from EWI President Bob Prechter offer another perspective. Read more .
Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It Deflation is more than just "falling prices." Robert Prechter explains why. The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation -- echoed even by some renowned economists -- is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects. Effects of what? Keep reading to find out.
How Elliott Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading The Wave Principle identifies trend, countertrend, maturity of a trend -- and more. Every trader and analyst has favorite techniques to use when trading. But where traditional technical studies fall short, the Wave Principle kicks in to show you high probability price targets and, just as importantly, how to distinguish high probability trade setups from the ones that traders should ignore. Here's how ...
