ACTS Money Machine

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0730.ET
World and US Markets are Down Big . . . see Reasons why.
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.10 – 42.30
QQQQ Support is at 41.30 – 41.50, then at 40.80, then 40.60, then 40.40, then 40.20
See the Weekend Analysis I posted last night for further details.

The Economic Events out today are minor . . . some Bill Auctions and Fed Reserve Bank speeches.

My Plan is to wait for a Bounce from the Opening Down and then look for a Reversal Down Signal to Open a Down position (Short QQQQ or Long QID or Long QQQQ Put options). . . . I do not recommend just plain chasing the Open Down … wait for a Bounce and then a Signal.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Well .. we got the Bounce after the Down Opening . . . however, there was a Strong Reversal Up Signal at that Bounce . . . so she never came back Down .. hence never gave a Reversal Down Signal.

THAT is why I usually just like to Trade what she gives to us . . . getting into an Up position at that Bounce would have been very Profitable today . . . it’s a tough call since we’ve been going Up for so long, but I think from now on we just need to Trade whatever Signal we get . . . since either direction would make sense at this point.

Here’s that Reversal Up Signal that the Model Showed during the Open:
(the best time to Trade!)

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These are my Notes on the current state of QQQQ and a Plan for Trading on Monday . . . [protect]

1 – Friday’s Candle is very Bearish . . . look at the previous Hanging Man candles this past Month and what followed the very next day:

2 -the Weekly View (LT) . . . QQQQ has impressively risen to new highs of the year . . . I’m looking for that 144-ma to be a Strong Resistance . . . I will look for a hit and possibly slight over-shoot for a Reversal Down Signal for an intraday Scalp … and then possibly a Reversal Up Signal to enter Long QQQQ (or Long QQQQ Call options or Long QLD) on a multi-day basis . . depending on the Down Strength . . . . . I am looking for this Trade because I have a generally Bearish view of the Economy and the Government actions running it:

3 -our favorite Helper Chart .. the $XII Institutional action . . . this shows us that the MACD turns of this Signal appear to be very important forecasting-signs of turns in the Market . . . it looks like we’re topping again now:

4 – our second favorite Helper Charts shows the VIX making a turn North . . . will it last . . . . …

Also, the SPY/SPX still is under-performing the QQQQ (Techs out-performing the rest of the Market) . . . I think it all gets dragged Down to and with the SPY (overall Market).

While I do see lots of Bullishness . . you can see from the Charts I’ve posted over the last few weeks that there is nothing of value really pushing the Market Up with any Strength . . . I’m waiting for the Down soon … or a real sign of Strength.

Notice, though, that I am happy to make money Scalping UP moves .. if our Trading Model gives us a Reversal Up Signal for an intraday Scalp . . . I’m just not willing to put a lot of long-term money into Up positions.

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How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Right

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0645.ET
World Markets are slightly Up and US Markets/Futures are Flat.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.54/104.83
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.10 – 42.30
QQQQ Support is at 41.30 – 41.50, then at 40.80, then 40.60, then 40.40, then 40.20

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0830.ET . . so be careful!

My Plan is to watch the Open for a slight Down move due to some slightly bad news out BMO and then look for a Reversal Up Signal using the 1- and 5- min (VVST- and VST- System) Charts . . . . I would then Open an Up position (Long QQQQ or Long QLD or Long QQQQ Call options) for a Day-Trade (not holding over the weekend).
Otherwise I will not chase higher nor try to catch a sharply falling knife.

This Bear is becoming Bullish . . LOL

AMC Commentary [protect]

Yes! . . . it happened exactly as I planned BMO this morning . . . QQQQ Opened slightly Down and then gave us a VVST Reversal Up Signal .. I bought Sep-$42 Calls which then ran higher with QQQQ going to the 41.60 area giving me well into double-digit percentage gains causing me to Bank Big Profits and Relax the rest of the day (Rule #1):

As I often do, I will be Posting a Weekend Analysis of what I expect for next week … along with lots more Annotated Charts.

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Prechter’s FREE 10-Page Market Letter: Be One of the Few the Government Hasn’t Fooled

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0745.ET
Far East Markets are Up Big .. Europe and US Markets are Flat.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.08/103.76
QQQQ put in a Strong showing yesterday rising right Up to one of our Key Resistance levels at 41.30 before Closing back Down at another Key level in 41.0x.
So now QQQQ Resistance is at 41.30 – 41.50, then 42.30
QQQQ Support is at 40.80, then 40.60, then 40.40, then 40.20, then 39.7x, then 39.40

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0830.ET . . so be careful!
Trading today will be totally driven (and manipulated) by the Economic Reports out BMO this morning.

AMC Commentary [protect]

QQQQ Dropped pretty quickly today before giving a Reversal Up Signal that then started the Up all day move:

1 – the VVST (1-min) System Chart … and this is why I usually Scalp Trade using the 1- and 5- minute Charts . . In/Out without the stress of overnight Holding . . . doing this often enough doesn’t hurt you bank account . . . of course I opted out again today, I’ve really got to start Trading my System more often . . . I got 15% a few days ago and then just take it easy .. LOL:

2 -the 60-min Swing Chart . . . QQQQ has now Swung higher after breaking above the old high . . good momentum, but also Over-Bought:

3 -another 60-min view shows how over-extended to the Upside she now is:

4 – QQQQ blasted past the previous Resistances so they are now Supports:

5 -the Weekly QQQQ Chart shows the Bullish Strength she’s had lately:

6 -she keeps charging higher to the next Major Pivot Level:

7 – the YEN/VIX indicator . . a direct relationship to stock prices:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0700.ET
World Markets are mixed-flat
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 40.66/102.86
QQQQ Resistance is at 40.80, then 41.0x, then 41.30 – 41.50, then 42.30
QQQQ Support is at 40.60, then 40.40, then 40.20, then 39.7x, then 39.40
See last night’s post for more details .. as well as Trading ideas for today.
I am currently expecting a Sideways to Down day … although the Beige Book report at 1400.ET will keep things quiet until then and may make things wild afterwards … be careful .. maybe staying in Cash is not a bad idea, especially if Volume is real low.

There are some Economic Events out all day starting at 0700.ET.

AMC Commentary [protect]

QQQQ Opened Up and then hit our first Resistance level listed this morning above . . . then Dropped straight Down to our first Support level listed this morning above . . . THAT is when the Reversal Up Signal came . . . though I, unfortunately, decided against entering a position .. then QQQQ went Up to reach new Highs for the year (at our third Resistance level listed above) before falling back … I’ve Annotated it in the Chart below:

Sorry .. but StockCharts.com has been down all afternoon and evening and I am not able to draw any more charts tonight.

I was going to update and Post the SPY Chart I posted this past weekend and show it hitting the key levels I had drawn and how it has NOT made new highs like QQQQ has . . . I’ll post more about this tomorrow night.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0630.ET
World Markets are
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 40.24/102.00 … ever so slightly Down from Friday’s Close.
QQQQ Resistance is at 40.40, then 40.60, then 40.80, then 41.0x
QQQQ Support is at 40.20, then 39.7x, then 39.40
See last night’s Weekend Analysis post for detailed Support & Resistance Levels for QQQQ and SPY .. as well as for my Trading Plan for today in Chart-1 (SPY) and Chart-3 (QQQQ).

There are some Economic Events out this morning starting at 0745.ET . . nothing really Big.

AMC Commentary [protect]

A beautiful GOM Trade this morning and then out after 30-minutes with 15% Profit! . . . then basically sideways all day .. ending somewhat Bullish as QQQQ Held and Closed above its Gap Up Open.

1 – the GOM Trade … all done on the 1-min Chart … a high-Volume bar soon after the Open gave me the alert and then the Down price-bar and CCI(55) gave me the Signal to Open a partial Down position (Sep-$40 PUTs) . . . I Held as she fell on gut instinct/experience as I watched my streaming Chart 1-min bars update .. staying below the 8-ma until that started to give way … but I waited until the CCI(13) made one final plunge Down to Close my Down position and Bank nice Profits:

2 -the Swing higher continued today with that Gap Up Open … making it all the way to the recent Swing High … for the third time in recent weeks . . . tomorrow will be key . . . Closing above that Top would be Bullish . . . watch out for an Up move on generally low-Volume . . . if that was the case, I would not chase higher:

3 -QQQQ Swung back to above the recent Trading Range .. where it last came Down hard from . . . it looks like we’re getting some Negative Divergence again .. which is Short-Term Bearish .. but watch and see before jumping into any biased position:

4 -this 60-min (IT-frame) Chart shows the nearby key levels to be used as Targets and as Reversal points:

5 – one of my Helper Charts I’ve posted before … it made a move back Up to the Channel like I previously predicted within the last week . .  but has now come back Down . . . certainly not Bullish:

As always, I will wait until tomorrow morning BMO to finalize any of my Trading Plans (as should you) . . . but I’m thinking it will be the same as today’s was … use those key levels to fade from on a Strong Reversal Signal from this Trading System.

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Weekend Commentary . . . Planning for QQQQ and SPY Trading this week . . .


Here are some SPY and QQQQ Annotated Charts that will help lay out my Trading Plan for this holiday shortened week: [protect]

1 – this 60-min SPY chart shows Intraday Support & Resistance levels . . . currently at a 101.75 – 102.25 Pivot area, a move out of this area will head SPY towards (and to) Support or Resistance . . breaking out of the wider Range of 99.50 – 104.50 will define the next Big Trend . . . also notice the Bull/Bear battle .. the first four days of September have formed a Cup & Handle structure which, if she breaks and holds above 102.10, would be Bullish .. VS .. the Down-trend since the last week of August, then the Bounce yesterday (Down/Up or 1/2 of a Down/Up/Down or 1/2/3) .. a break and hold below 99.50 would be Bearish . . . use the Pivot/Support/Resistance areas I colored on the Chart as key price areas in all time-frames … then Enter positions only on an ACTS System Signal (VVST/VST/ST/IT, etc.):

2 – this Daily SPY chart shows broader Support & Resistance levels and a Short-Term Bearish look with the CCI(55) showing lower highs even as SPY price rose some (negative divergence) .. use these levels for a medium-term reference:

3 – this 60-min QQQQ chart shows Intraday Support & Resistance levels . . . breaking out of the wider Range of 39.00 – 41.00 will define the next Big Trend . . . use the Pivot/Support/Resistance areas I marked on the Chart as key price areas in all time-frames … then Enter positions only on an ACTS System Signal (VVST/VST/ST/IT, etc.) .. letting QQQQ run to the next level and waiting for the Counter-Trend Signal, if there:

4 – this Daily QQQQ chart shows broader Support & Resistance levels and a Medium-Term Bullish look with our favorite three MAs continuing to rise Strong .. with the shorter-period one (8-ma) coming Down and Kissing with every healthy pullback before continuing Up Strong with the others again … use these levels for a medium-term reference:

SUMMARY

I would be leery of another low-Volume day Tuesday .. but if you “must” Trade them, low-Volume days usually go Up . . .  use the System Signals with high-Volume bars acting as a guide . . . I will post my usual BMO Commentary in the morning tomorrow with up-to-date price-data and Plans.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0745.ET
World Markets are Up over 1% for the most part . . .
USA Markets/Futures are Up some as well.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.67/101.03
QQQQ Resistance is at 39.6x, then 39.8x, then 40.0x
QQQQ Support is at 39.40, then 39.1x, then at 39.00, then at 38.50, then at 38.30.
Use the Charts I posted last night as broader guides.

The Big Economic Event out this morning is at 0830.ET . . the Employment Numbers.

I have no real Plan for today as I expect there to be very low Volume and will not be Trading due to the higher risk/reward . . . I’m starting my holiday weekend early.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Up through the Resistance all morning … to the September OE Pivot … then sideways the rest of the day . . . the extremely Low-Volume kept me out from Trading in the morning and the setup I show in Chart-1 kept me out for the rest of the day . . so I just Relaxed.

1 – the 1-min VVST/GOM Chart shows the low morning Volume until lunch-time .. and then what happened that kept me Relaxing the rest of the day:

2 – this 60-min QQQQ Chart shows the action of the past 2-days gets her back to the top of the recent Trading Range . . but not looking like she wants to keep going higher:

3 – this 60-min QQQQ Chart shows the Swing action … the recent high-Swing (~40.80) would provide Resistance if QQQQ made it that high again:

4 – the September OE Pivot levels . . QQQQ has Bounced Up from S1 and is now back at the Pivot again:

PLAN — I will work on some Charts and a Plan for next week over the extended weekend . . . have a great! one everybody.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0715.ET
World/US Markets are Up some.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.41/100.44
QQQQ Resistance is at 39.4x, then 39.6x, then 39.8x, then 40.0x
QQQQ Support is at 39.1x, then at 39.00, then at 38.50, then at 38.30 … really tight!

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0830.ET . . so be careful!

Here’s my Trading Plan for today:

1 – QQQQ is right back into that long-time Trading Range again where the 39.50 area is the key Pivot . . . I like fading a move to the upper area of this Range … but only on a Reversal Down Signal when the rise is only from one-time News or some other such one-event spike in prices (especially in this “bad economy” environment):

2 – this Daily QQQQ view shows the possible Short-Term roll Down in an Up-trend . . . a pull-back of 38.2% is very healthy and common in a Strong Up-trend:

So, my Plan is to keep fading rallies (Opening Down positions) within the guidelines I’ve Annotated above . . . mostly if they fail (Reversal Down Signal) under 40. (not at 40, just somewhere under 40 .. as a break above 40 would give me pause to reconsider my Plan)

AMC Commentary [protect]

Another boring, pre-holiday trading day .. I think it was the lowest-Volume Trading day of the year!
THAT is why I did not do any Trading today … even with the Gap-Up Open that did Reverse Down . . . the risk/reward was too high to Trade without that high-Volume bar to verify the coming Reversal.

So, let’s zoom out a little and look at the bigger picture . . . I see possibly a few more days to a week of sideways consolidation within our current Trading Range .. and then a move lower for a few weeks and into October.

3 - a QQQQ Daily view showing the MAs still Rolling over towards the Down-side . . . notice the 34-dma acting as Resistance for these past two days:

4 - another QQQQ Daily view . . . shows that 34-dma Resistance and the 55-dma Support as well as other Supports/Targets below should QQQQ turn into a Bear-Trend:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0650.ET
World Markets are Down Big in Asia and Europe while being Down slightly in the USA.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.18/100.03 … Down a bit from yesterday’s Close.
QQQQ Resistance is at 39.4x, then 39.6x, then 39.8x, then 40.0x
QQQQ Support is at 39.1x, then at 39.00, then at 38.50, then at 38.30 … getting tight in here!

There are lots of Economic Events out today starting at 0700.ET . . so be careful as there could be lots of whipsaws and head-fakes.

My Plan today is to watch for some kind of Up-swing to one of the Resistance levels .. then a failure/Reversal Signal in order to Open Down positions. Remember that a break Down through a Support level makes that level a new Resistance level.

AMC Commentary [protect]

WoW! .. what an exciting day . . . . NOT.
Absolutely nothing happened today . . so I have absolutely nothing to write about . . .
just an amazingly sideways day.
I will take the night off.

Be sure to check back int he morning to read my BMO Commentary . . .
I do see a good Trading Plan for tomorrow developing …
we’ll see how overnight and Pre-Market look.
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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0645.ET
Far East Markets are Up slightly and Europe is Down slightly to Big.
US early Trading and Futures are Down slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.75/101.71
QQQQ Resistance is at 40.50 – 40.70, then 40.80, then 41.00
QQQQ Support is at 40.15 – 40.0x, then 39.60 – 39.70, then 39.4x

There are Economic Events out today starting at 0745.ET that will affect the Markets.

Very key price levels for the Short-Term are the 39.67 Low of the last Swing Down and the XX-sma on my 60-min Chart of 39.80 . . . if QQQQ struggles to stay above these levels, our previously Posted Bearish scenarios will start to take hold. I think I am just going to sit out of Scalp-Trading today and watch . . it could be Wild and ugly with all of the little news events coming out today … I see Bullish head-fakes galore in this turning Bearish environment. . . . possibly a good time to start building those longer-term Bearish positions.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Well .. very nice Trading opportunity today using the System Charts.
QQQQ Opened and moved higher on low-Volume towards the Big 1000.ET ISM Report . . . so staying away until then was a good idea.
THEN, the ISM Report came out and was GOOD news . . . BUT, it was a “Sell the News” event as super high-Volume came in with price NOT moving higher .. a Signal to Short QQQQ (or Long QID or Long QQQQ Put options).

Here are the Annotated Charts for the day:

1 – the VVST (1-min) System Chart:

2 – the VST (5-min) System Chart showing the same Signals … notice how the Closes of each bar stayed below the 8-sma (red-line) all the way Down . . . it moving above that line is/was a sign of an “end” as well as the usual CCI(55) rise:

3 – the IT (60-min) System Chart also showing the Swings . . . the latest Counter Swing has broken below the previous Swing-Low and may be the first Swing of the Reversed direction .. Down. . . . we’ll have to see how tomorrow unfolds . . . watch for price to come Up and retest the  longer 55-sma … if she fails to get past it, I would look for a continued Swing Down . . . otherwise, I would just sit tight and let things play out for tomorrow:

4 – the September OE Pivots on a Daily QQQQ Chart . . . the Bearish Signals I’ve been posting about in recent days’ Charts have come to fruition . . . notice that OE Magnet! .. price went right Down and Close ON S1:

5 – the Long-Term Pivots for QQQQ . . . she touched 40.50 just to say “GoodBye” early today … then catapulted Down past the 39.60 Pivot:

6 – a new Helper Chart I’ve posted about rarely in the past . . . . it uses the USD:VIX ratio . . . for details, see Chart-2 from this past Weekend Analysis post:

SUMMARY

Tomorrow I will be watching for a failure of an Up-move to get past 40.10 as a Signal to Open Down positions . . . looking for a higher-Volume roll-Down from a high CCI level as the point to start Shorting.
If we get a runaway move at the Open in either direction, just step aside . . . it is never good to chase the Market. . . . Instead, if convinced that she will continue in that direction, wait for a pull-back in the opposite direction (a pause) in order to enter a position.

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