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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0720.ET
World and US Markets/Futures are Up Big.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 43.09 / 108.79
Since yesterday was fairly sideways, the QQQQ Support and Resistance details are shown on the Annotated Chart posted Friday night in AMC Commentary.
Overview: . . . Support @ 42.25, then 42.05, then 41.85 . . . Resistance @ 42.70, then 43.0x, then43.20
If QQQQ Opens well above 42.70, then it will become Support.

There are lots of Economic Events out this morning starting with the MBA Purchase Applications Report just released at 0700.ET that showed a lessening of Applications .. and the Big ones at 0830.ET and then at 1000.ET . . . remember these and be careful around their releases. . . I am still leaning to the Bearish side until shown differently by a sustained break-out above one of the Trend lines shown in last night’s Chart.

Remember, Intel had good earnings and guidance last night AMC . . . this is giving us a very Strong Up Market this morning . . . I will be looking to Sell the News if there is no follow through Up after the Open as QQQQ hits that upper trend-line I drew last night (and gets out of the box I drew Friday and Monday nights) . . . I’ll start looking for my Strong Reversal Down Signal at about 10- to 15- minutes after the Market Opens. . . Yesterday’s Drop was as a result of less buyers as opposed to more sellers .. so be careful about getting too exuberant in either direction when a trend-line is broken.

AMC Commentary [protect]

As predicted, QQQQ Opened higher and then fell after 10- to 15- minutes . . . but then she drifted higher the rest of the day .. hitting our high Resistance level posted this morning . . . buoyed by the enthusiasm of nearing and then hitting DOW 10,000. . . . It sure was anemic after hitting 10,000 . . . I am expecting a move Down during the Opening 20-minutes tomorrow morning . . but we’ll see what tomorrow morning brings and we’ll Post the more detailed Plan in our BMO Commentary.

1 – a 15-min QQQQ Chart showing the weak jump Up . . along with Support levels:

2 -some more details looking at the Daily Chart . . . there should be a strong push to fill that Gap .. moving towards the October OE Pivot-Line . . . then we’ll see how Bullish the people are:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0745.ET
World Markets are mixed-Flat … US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.65 / 107.80
QQQQ Support and Resistance details are shown on the Annotated Chart posted Friday night in AMC Commentary.
Overview: . . . Support @ 42.25, then 42.05, then 41.85 . . . Resistance @ 42.70, then 43.0x, then43.20

There are lots of Economic Events out this morning starting at 0745.ET . . I am still leaning to the Bearish side until shown differently by a sustained break-out above the box shown in last night’s Charts.

AMC Commentary [protect]

No Strong Signals today … just low Volume wandering . . . ending near UNChanged. . . . the Big news came after the Closing Bell . . . INTel surprised with their numbers and great! guidance . . . AH was Up Big. . . . barring catastrophe, look for an Upside Open tomorrow. . . . come back and read my BMO Commentary tomorrow morning for my Trading guidelines.

For tonight, let’s look at a Daily QQQQ Chart and how “the bigger picture” is looking . . never lose sight of that:
This latest Up-move sure looks weak .. and today’s action was an Inside-day . . meaning there should be a Big move tomorrow and/or the next . . . all signs point to a coming Down, but with all of the manipulation recently, you never know. . . That is why I always like to see a high-Volume spike or two before playing the fade.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0630.ET
Far East Markets are mixed while European Markets are Up Big and US Markets/Futures are Up some.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.72 / 107.90
QQQQ Support and Resistance details are shown on the Annotated Chart posted Friday night in AMC Commentary.
Overview: . . . Support @ 42.05 then 41.85 . . . Resistance @ 42.70 then 43.20

There are no Economic Events of any concern this morning starting .. so we should probably drift Upward … be careful of a low-Volume drift higher .. use the Annotated Chart I posted Friday night in AMC Commentary as a guide for break-outs.

AMC Commentary [protect]

QQQQ stayed pretty much within Range again . . . Opening above and Closing within it. . . . With such low-Volume, it was wise not to even Trade and to keep waiting for the high-Volume Reversal.

Here are my Annotated Chart Commentaries for today:

1 -the 15-min Chart shows what happened . . . above Resistance, then back below it:

2 – the 60-min Chart shows the same thing … in a different time-frame and point of view:

3 -the Renko Chart sure looks Bullish . . but I’m waiting for a break-out:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0715.ET
World/US Markets/Futures are Up strongly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.17 / 106.77

There is only one Economic Event out today .. International Trade at 0830.ET . . . My Plan is to watch for a breaking of the Support & Resistance level Boundaries I posted over the past two nights in AMC Commentary . . . but I suspect that today will be lower in Volume and will probably stay within the Range . . . I anticipate a lower Opening to fill in yesterday’s Gap that I wrote about in last night’s AMC Commentary as well.

Yesterday’s Action:

The Industrials rose 61.29 points Thursday, after being up as high as 111 points mid-day.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 7.34 points Thursday, closing at 1,717.79.
The Russell 2000 rose 5.67 points Thursday, closing at 607.75.
The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 6.35 points Thursday, closing at 449.61.
November Gold rose to a new all-time high, closing at 1050.4.
Silver rose to 17.81, while December Oil rose to 71.82.
The Dollar fell 0.49 to 75.97.
Bonds fell a point to 121^21.
The VIX fell 0.50 to 24.18.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Another day just as expected . . . not getting anywhere for all the Bulls that are jumping on . . . . of course, she could take off higher any moment . . . but I am still betting she goes Down next. Here is a Chart showing all of the local Supports and Resistance … I’m waiting for a break-out .. Up or Down:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0630.ET
World/US Markets/Futures are Up strongly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.40 / 106.85
Assuming a Strong Up Opening, Resistance and Support will be as follows:
– QQQQ Resistance is 42.45 – 42.7x, then 43.0x/.1x
– QQQQ Support is at 42.25, then 42.10, then 41.60, then 41.20, then 40.7x – 40.9x

There are several Big Economic Events out today .. starting at 0830.ET . . . My Plan is to look for a Reversal Down Signal as we move Up into Resistance .. like previously this week . . . so if the BMO Economic News is slightly bad, this should happen nicely.
If the BMO News is very bad, the Market may just Drop .. in which case I would be looking for a Bounce to Open Down positions.
If the BMO News is good, look for the Market to Open Up stronger . . . then I would be looking for that Reversal Down Signal . . and also be watching to see if the Market can take out previous highs and local Resistances to turn Bullish.

Yesterday’s Action:

The Industrials fell 5.67 points Wednesday.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 5.20 points Wednesday, closing at 1,710.45.
The Russell 2000 rose 0.10 points Wednesday, closing at 602.08.
The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 4.18 points Wednesday, closing at 443.26.
November Gold rose to another new all-time high, closing at 1043.8.
Silver rose to 17.49, while December Oil fell to 70.15.
The Dollar rose 0.15 to 76.46.
Bonds rose three quarters of a point to 122^27.
The VIX fell 1.02 to 24.58.

AMC Commentary [protect]

A Gap Up Open .. but not enough to give any Signals . . . and the current S-T Trend is sideways so nothing to play against . . . QQQQ was fairly well contained between our first Support and Resistance Levels (listed above BMO).

Here are some Annotated Charts for today:

1 -This 15-min Chart shows QQQQ moving right Up into Resistance and then backing off . . . if QQQQ clears and Holds above that top pink Resistance line, I will get Bullish . . . others I will keep looking for a Strong Reversal Down Signal:

2 -this 60-min Chart shows the same characteristics . . . staying within that green box I had drawn last night:

3 -our good old Mr. Helper Chart of the Institutional Index shows a negative divergence of rising prices with falling indicator strength . . . this often leads to a Reversal Down of prices:

4 -a Daily QQQQ Chart also showing the October OE Pivot Levels . . . today was a very Bearish Candle . . . a smallish body with a long wick . . . the Bulls tried to go higher, but the Bears won the day by bringing price back Down near where they Opened . . . the Opening Gap Up will draw price Down to fill it . . . nature, and supply/demand, abhor a vacuum . . . I expect a move Down tomorrow morning during the Open . . . THEN watch and see what price and Volume do around 42.0x . . . if you see a Reversal Up Signal shown my high Volume with prices not moving much below 42, that would be a sign of a pending Up trend about to start:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0530.ET
Far-East Markets are Up Big while European and US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.00 / 105.80
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.10, then 42.45 – 42.7x
QQQQ Support is at 41.60, then 41.20, then 40.7x – 40.9x

There are very few Economic Events out today . . . nothing to trade against so Volume might be slightly lighter than usual. My Plan would normally be to look for a Reversal Down Signal as we move Up into Resistance .. like previously this week . . . but given the anticipated light action, I may just sit out unless I see a Strong Reversal Down Signal once we hit Resistance .. although I caution that if the Volume is lighter, any Reversal Down may be short-lived . . we really like to have Big News Events to drive the Market harder for our QQQQ Options Scalping.

Yesterday’s Action:

The DOW Industrials rose 131.50 points Tuesday, in strong upside follow-through to Monday’s rise.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 29.61 points Tuesday, closing at 1,705.25.
The Russell 2000 rose 10.87 points Tuesday, closing at 601.98.
The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 28.71 points Tuesday, closing at 439.08.
Gold hit a new all-time high Tuesday, October 6th, as an avalanche of dollars being injected into the economy is boosting inflation assets. November Gold rose to a new all-time high, closing at 1039.1.
Silver rose to 17.28, while December Oil rose to 71.45.
The Dollar fell 0.39 to 76.31.
Bonds fell 8 ticks to 122^01.
The VIX fell 1.14 to 25.70.

AMC Commentary [protect]

A very lackluster day . . as expected . . so I just stayed out and Relaxed after 1015.ET or so . . . once I saw the Range we were going to be in would be contained between our first Support and Resistance Levels (listed above BMO).

Be sure to go HERE and see my Longer-Term Charts . . . we are at key levels longer-term as well as short-term . . . . be sure to VOTE for me at the bottom of that page . . . thanks !!

Look at last night’s Charts and you can see that we were contained within the Down-trending Levels . . . so no key break-out yet.

I am going to post the Long-Term Pivot-Levels Chart to refresh your memories of how powerful these levels are . . . prices are Strongly attracted to them:

Stay tuned tomorrow for the early morning Commentary and any Trading Plans that may develop.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0715.ET
World Markets are Up Big while US Markets/Futures are Up nicely.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.55 / 105.07
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.30 – 41.60, then 41.90 – 42.0x
QQQQ Support is at 40.80 – 41.0x, then 40.5x, then 40.3x, then 39.50

Today is a fairly light day for Economic Events starting this morning at 0745.ET and then 0855.ET with some Treasury Auctions scattered throughout the day.

I am anticipating a move higher into a Resistance area as shown above and according to my Weekend Analysis posted here . . . Then look for a Reversal Down Signal to re-enter a Short position to take advantage of the coming Down we expect. . . . Warning! .. this move Up may last more than one day before a Short Signal is given. . . . make sure the Signal is on very high-Volume to ensure its validity.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Today we had follow-through from yesterday’s Up . . . Strong in the morning then tapered off the rest of the day. Overall, I think she is still looking weak . . unable to overcome recent highs of last week . . . here are my deeper thoughts Annotated in the Charts:

1 -this 15-min Model Chart shows today’s rise heading Up into the existing Down-Trend and Overhead Resistance . . . like I talked about in this morning’s Commentary. .. Until QQQQ can Hold above the Top Resistance shown on the Chart, I consider QQQQ to be in a near-term Down-trend . . . worthy of Shorting these small Rallies:

2 -the 60-min Chart shows a similar story . . . verifying the shorter time-frame above:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0645.ET
World/US Markets are slightly mixed-flat.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.20 / 103.20
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.30 – 41.60, then 41.90 – 42.0x
QQQQ Support is at 40.80 – 41.0x, then 40.5x, then 40.3x, then 39.50

Today is a light day for Economic Events starting this morning at 1000.ET . . probably causing light Volume leading to a drift Upwards.

I am anticipating a move higher into a Resistance area as shown above and according to my Weekend Analysis posted here yesterday. . . Then look for a Reversal Down Signal to re-enter a Short position to take advantage of the coming Down we expect. . . . Warning! .. this move Up may last more than one day before a Short Signal is given. . . . make sure the Signal is on very high-Volume to ensure its validity.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Everything went today exactly as predicted/planned over the weekend and BMO this morning. QQQQ gave us the Bounce we called for right Up and into our Resistance Zone around S1 on the October OE Pivot Chart as well as other key Technical levels defining that Zone. . . The early Up/Down action provided some possible scalping . . . but mostly we got the small, Down-pressure relieving Up move we expected . . . . look to my BMO Commentary tomorrow morning for the Trading Plan.

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Here are my thoughts on Trading this coming week . . . including lots of Annotated Charts as proofs: [protect]

1 – the S&P-500 Daily is back Down to its 50-dsma . . . primed for a Short-Term Bounce . . . if she falls through there, things don’t bode well for the near-term:

2 – on the other hand, the S&P-500 has already broken Down through recent Support .. which should be retested before a probable continuation lower to the 320-dsma area:

3 -this Long-Term S&P-500 Monthly Chart shows the 7-month rally petering out and possibly ready to roll Down:

4 -this Daily Chart shows QQQQ Down to “Bounce-able” levels like previously shown during the current Up-trend . . so don’t be surprised if we actually get some Up on Monday before probably Down in the near future:

5 -some more Daily QQQQ ammo as to why we might get a Bounce . . . the Aroon indicators that I’ve been using to predict the recent Big Down, are now almost to the “other side” . . . we may get a further push Down to that next Target before Bouncing though . . . just be aware of the situation so that you’re not jumping heavily into any one direction just because of some movement in that direction:

6 -more Short-Term QQQQ Targets below before a possible Bounce:

7 -the October Options Expiration Pivot-Levels Chart shows even more Downside Targets . . but, we’re right in the middle . . . I can envision a retest of the S1 level (= ex- Support/Target) before a continuation Down to S2 before Bouncing … or not! .. LOL .. BUT, this would Close that Gap as well:

8 -this Weekly QQQQ Chart shows the perfect rise to a key level and then fall . . . though QQQQ has done this before at the previous key-levels .. only to continue much higher!

9 – let’s look at this USD:VIX Helper Chart . . . the Signal went back Up and retested the bottom of that Channel beofre falling back Down again . . . and currently sits at the same lower level as one-month ago:

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The Industrials fell 21.61 points Friday. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.92 points Friday, closing at 1,662.49. The Russell 2000 fell 3.55 points Friday, closing at 580.20. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index fell 2.79 points Friday, closing at 394.74. November Gold rose to 1003.7. Silver fell to 16.22, while December Oil fell to 70.33. The Dollar fell 0.19 to 77.05. Bonds were flat at 122^09. The VIX rose 0.41 to 28.68.

The Labor Department reported Friday that Unemployment for September rose to 9.8 percent. One out of ten Americans who are seeking work, are out of work. If laid off full time workers settling for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is now up to 17 percent. If we include discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment (they are not included in the Labor Department’s unemployment figures), then the unemployment figures rise to 10.1 percent and 17.3 percent.

The problem is getting worse, and evolving into a crisis of Family Household income. Consumers account for 70 percent of all spending, of GDP. The Labor Department reported Friday that 263,000 more people lost jobs in September, non-farm payroll job losses, but actually the number was even worse than reported because the Labor Department reduced the actual number of job losses by “let’s pretend” jobs that they imagined in their deepest melatonin dreams were created, they think, by start-up businesses to the tune of 34,000. The actual number of non-farm jobs losses were 297,000 if you ignore this fantasy and get real. The U.S. needs to add 150,000 new jobs each month to simply accommodate population growth. So the short-fall from break-even in September was actually closer to half a million jobs. Even government jobs fell 53,000 in September.

At this moment, 36 million Americans are on Food Stamps. One out of every six jobs in the U.S. feeds off the Health Care Industry. One sixth of our Gross Domestic Product is spent on sickness, either prevention, detection, treatment, or insurance. Is this a formula for prosperity in any nation?

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0715.ET
World Markets are Down big .. US Markets/Futures are Down slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 40.98 / 102.90
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.30 – 41.60, then 41.90 – 42.0x
QQQQ Support is at 40.5x, then 40.3x, then 39.50

There are Big Economic Events out this morning at 0830.ET and 1000.ET . . they will help drive price-action today.

I would expect a small Bounce this morning, BUT everything is hanging on those Economic Reports due out this morning. . . . as bad as things feel, there is a lot of Support in the 40.50 area and if underlying forces are still Bullish, it is a perfect time for another leg Up.
As always, use our VVST- and VST- methods for determining the underlying Trend and changes that may be happening . . . or not.

Yesterday’s Action:

Stocks plunged Thursday, with the NASDAQ losing 65 points, or 3.0 percent!
The Industrials fell 203.00 points, the worst daily decline in three months. NYSE volume was flat at 113 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 95 percent, with declining issues leading at 84 percent, with downside points at 98 percent, a 90 percent panic selling down day.
The NASDAQ 100 plunged 52.58 points Thursday, closing at 1,666.41. The Russell 2000 fell 20.53 points Thursday, closing at 583.75. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index fell 21.12 points Thursday, closing at 397.53. November Gold fell to 1000.1. Silver fell to 16.38, while December Oil rose to 70.63. The Dollar rose 0.53 to 77.24. Bonds rose a point to 122^11, a flight to quality. The VIX rose 2.66 to 28.27.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Stocks were flat today after Thursday’s sharp decline. The Unemployment report came out today, and it was dismal. The Unemployment rate in the U.S. is now 9.8 percent, however, if you include folks who had full time jobs but are settling for part-term work, the unemployment rate has risen to 17 percent! .. Over 35 million Americans are on Food Stamps. .. I believe that we are in for a deeper drop in the medium-term, but we might see some Up first.

A seemingly boring day . . . but a lot of action actually occurred . . . . I will do a wrap-up and Trading Analysis for next week over this weekend . . . look for my Weekend Analysis by Sunday night.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0707.ET
World and US Markets/Futures are Down somewhat .. about 0.6%.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.05 / 105.20
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.50, then 42.6x, then 43.0x – 43.20
QQQQ Support is at 41.90 – 42.0x, then 41.40 – 41.60, then 40.80 – 41.00

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting early and continuing all morning . . so watch out!

Stocks are forming patterns that warn the Bear Market that started 2 years ago is about to unveil its next destructive move down . . . so,  I am still looking to Short QQQQ Rallies as opposed to Buying Dips .. especially for any Holding of longer than a few hours . . . I see a major Drop coming soon … sometime within the month of October. … Use last night’s Chart-3 for break-out guidance.

Yesterday’s Market Action:

Stocks ended mixed Wednesday, after a roller coaster day. The Industrials fell 133 points early, then recovered all the losses mid-day, before closing down 29.92 points. The day’s price action formed a classic Hammer Candlestick pattern, which looks like a cross or “t.”
The NASDAQ 100 rose 1.32 points Wednesday, closing at 1,718.99. The Russell 2000 fell 6.17 points Wednesday, closing at 604.28. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 7.95 points Wednesday, closing at 418.65. October Gold rose back above 1,000, to 1,006.8. Silver rose to 16.65, while December Oil rose to 70.43. The Dollar fell 0.40 to 76.72. Bonds fell 8 ticks to 121^12. The VIX rose 0.42 to 25.61.

AMC Commentary [protect]

WoWser! . . . the Charts and Commentary say it all . . below:

1 – the 5-min System Chart shows how frustrating (and powerful)  the day was . . . there were times that the Reversal Up Signal seemed obvious . . . but the power Down was just too powerful . . . I think the Smart money jumped on Down today . . . tomorrow’s action will be critical for Trading in the following weeks:

2 – the 15-min Chart shows how our Support line was Broken . . it was why we kept saying to Short Rallies:

3 – the 60-min Chart we had drawn and posted last night shows the full aftermath:

4 – just as predicted . . . if the 38.2% retracement level was broken Down and Held, the 50% level would be the next Target … right on!

5-our Long-Term Pivot-Levels sure are powerful .. and predictive Targets:

6 -the October OE Pivot-Levels shows the Triangular break-out as well . . . I am just re-posting this same Chart I posted last night .. updated with today’s price-bar only . . . just to show my prediction from last night with today’s price-movement overlaid:

7 -this Chart was also posted one night very recently . . . look at how that Target was perfectly hit! . . . I am just re-posting this same Chart I posted previously .. updated with today’s price-bar only . . . just to show my prediction with today’s price-movement overlaid:

Well . . . a very nice week so far for this Bear . . . tomorrow will be very important in determining Trading for next week . . . I will post a Weekend Analysis with some thoughtfully Annotated Charts.

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