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BMO Commentary

Happy Veterans’ Day !!

The Markets are Open but will be very unpredictable today . . .
there are no Economic Events today . . .
I recommend just relaxing and enjoying the day.

AMC Commentary

A sharp Up Opening and then a drift Downward the rest of the day Closing a little higher . . . she sure is looking weak and ready to tumble Down some . . . we had a Spinning Top Closing daily-candle today .. somewhat Bearish under normal circumstances.

Some news I wanted to share . . . this Blog is going to start featuring a lot more Swing- and End-Of-Day- Trading Techniques/Education/Charts . . . I, personally, am having more of a need to shift a lot of my money into Swing- and Day- vehicles as opposed to Day-Trading . . . no fears, Day-Trading will still be a large focus .. but Swing- and EOD- Trading will start to get a lot more visibility . . . including new Trading Systems/Models to handle them as well.

Here are my thoughts/Charts/Commentary on today’s Market action:

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In general, we got the early push above recent Chart patterns I showed (esp. last night) . . . but the pull-back for the rest of the day may have negated their “break-through” power.

1 -QQQQ can be seen re-testing recent Highs . . tomorrow’s action will tell us if there’s more Up to come or not:

2 -here is the Renko Chart I showed last night .. updated with today’s action and overlaid with a pattern I noticed today . . . as Volume increases while price stays within a Range block (the Renko bar does not move as Volume increases each day under it) is a good alert of the next Trix crossover forecasting a price Reversal . . . keep an eye on the current, right-most Volume bar increasing if the current price-block does not get broken higher out of .. could be a sign of a coming Reversal: (this is the new indicator I spoke of today on the Message Board)

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0710.ET
Far East Markets are Up some while Europe is mixed-Flat . . . the US Markets/Futures are Down Slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 43.44 / 109.37
QQQQ Resistance is at 43.75, then 43.8x
QQQQ Support is at 43.17, then 42.90, then 42.6x

There are a few Economic Events out this morning starting at 0745.ET . . Retail Sales numbers followed by some Treasury Auctions and Fed Speakers . . . not much to affect price action once a Trend is established after the Open.

It’s not looking like there’s any follow through for the Open after yesterday’s Big run higher … good news for this Bear! . . . depending on the Retail Sales numbers, I am expecting a slight rise at the Open followed by some Down movement . . . watching for Signals at the start of an intra-day Trend that will tell us how Strong it might be. (how long it might last)

AMC Commentary [protect]

After a quick Down Opening, QQQQ once again rose higher for most of the rest of the day . . . I’m still Holding out for a Drop coming real soon as these runs higher are done on such low Volume . . . which, unfortunately, tomorrow will be again!

Here are my thoughts for the day:

1 – today’s intraday action on a 5-min Chart . . capped at the top by the morning’s high and a rising support underneath by the 89-ma . . one of them has to give tomorrow:

2 -the Institutional Index (XII) shows some divergence between a massively higher MACD and prices just barely reaching the highs of 2-weeks ago:

3 -QQQQ has reached back Up near the highs of 2-weeks ago on this Daily Chart showing the November OE Pivot-Levels . . . declining Volume recently does not bode well for prices breaking out higher .. Plus, there are several Gaps still left Open below:

4 -our amazing Long-Term Pivot-Levels have pointed the way again . . this Daily Chart shows the high Pivot-Level we’re at and those Open Gaps below as well:

5 – QQQQ has broken out into a higher range on our Renko Chart . . very Bullish .. but it is breaking out on such low Volume that I am leery to jump into Up positions:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0725.ET
World Markets are Up Big (over 1.5%) . . . US Markets/Futures are Up nicely as well.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.99 / 108.14
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.78, then 43.17, then 43.86
QQQQ Support is at 41.80-42.00, then 41.50, then 41.2x, then 40.9x, then 40.6x

There are No Economic Events today day except some Bill/Note Auctions starting at 1130.ET . . . having no news takes away an advantage to lower risk for us . . . no news reaction to trade with/against .. EXCEPT .. the passing by the House of the Health-Care Bill . . . a very volatile subject that could drive the Markets Strongly for a while.

We are at an important decision level in the Markets . . . as always, I will let the Markets tell me what they’re doing before jumping in too heavily . . I also still have my left eye watching Microsoft (MSFT) as I still expect it to Trade Down to 27 before any possibility of moving higher than 29 . . . currently in the  28.50 area, I look to Short it (or Buy Puts).

AMC Commentary [protect]

WoW! . . what a lousy day . . . the Market just kept going higher and higher for no reason and on low Volume . . . money/liquidity continues to be pumped into the Markets around the world .. falsely holding up the Markets . . . one day when they stop the “stimulus”, everything will come crashing Down. [/protect]

The US-Dollar is being trashed which is causing US Stock prices to rise . . they’re getting cheaper every day . . . it’s important to read this about the US-Dollar and how it affects the Stock Market and your Trading: Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart. [protect]

I actually Opened a Down position today (Long QQQQ Put options) and am Holding overnight . . . I think today’s action was phony and am looking for a Down-move in the morning . . . I saw some high-Volume Signals I wanted to risk some money on .. something I enjoy, though sometimes I lose a lot doing it .. but sometimes make a lot . . . I enjoy having a play-money account that I won’t miss if I lose it all .. though I never do.

Today’s move was totally bogus .. IMHO .. being artificially lifted . . . I’m betting a lot of profit-taking selling will come in real soon. (like tomorrow)

Here’s why I picked up some Puts . . . I like fading Big moves that have no real substance behind them:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0720.ET
Far East Markets are Up Big while European Markets are mixed around unchanged . . . US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.40 / 106.94
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.78, then 43.17, then 43.86
QQQQ Support is at 41.80-42.00, then 41.50, then 41.2x, then 40.9x, then 40.6x

There are Economic Events out throughout the day, but the Big one is out BMO this morning at 0830.ET . . so be careful! I will, and I highly recommend to, not be Trading today unless something outrageously Strong shows up. It will be a wild and unpredictable day … especially with the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) very active. Most people are Bullish right now .. another sign that the Top might be near .. just waiting for a trigger.

The DOW jumped 203.82 points yesterday, closing at 10,005.96. NYSE volume was lower on the rally at 86 percent of its 10 day average. Rallies are occurring on declining volume and declines are arriving on rising volume. That is a bearish formula and one we would expect to see around tops. Half of the trading days the past few weeks have seen moves above 100 points. Increased volatility, even large up days, is also something common around significant tops.
So, I am still Bearish .. even with a small Up-move today . . . but am really looking to start loading up on Down positions.  If we get a Strong Reversal Down Signal during the Open and it stalls after hitting Resistance, then I will probably start picking up QQQQ/SPY/MSFT Put Options in my Trading accounts .. as well as QID/SDS positions in my Retirement accounts . . otherwise I will just Relax and wait until next week.

AMC Commentary  [protect]

LOL . . . terrible news out this morning and the Market rises all day . . . that’s why I just stayed out today and Relaxed.
Over the weekend, I will try to do a deeper Analysis of the current state of affairs and Plans for next week.

Here are my Charts for today:

1 -the Daily OE Pivot Chart shows the bigger-picture action:

2 -our Institutional ($XII) Helper Chart shows that we have reached back Up to an important level . . not breaking and Holding above that level on Monday would Signal coming weakness in the overall Markets:

3 -our “strange” Renko Chart has Bounce back Up to the Top of the Range now . . . still awaiting a break out and Hold past one of the boundaries:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0725.ET
World Markets are mostly lower (under 1%) .. US Markets/Futures are Slightly lower to unchanged.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.65/ 105.37
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.50, then 41.70-41.90, then 42.20-42.30, then 42.50, then 42.70
QQQQ Support is at 41.00, then 40.7x – 40.6x, then40.4x- 40.3x, then 40.20, then 39.50, then 39.0x

There are some Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0830.ET . . . the FOMC Report yesterday was quite dovish .. no inflation and easy money for a while into the future . . . however, they seemed to imply that the economy will not be good for a while too . . . so, some good and some bad out of the whole deal.

I expect QQQQ to start out rising some today during the Open … all dependent on the BMO News . . .  The very key price levels today are those first areas of Resistance and Support . . . I think we get Range-bound / Sideways Trading today .. hitting those Resistant/Support levels and turning . . . most are waiting for tomorrow’s Big Employment Report . . . I think both today and tomorrow might be good days to sit out and Relax.

AMC Commentary [protect]

A powerful move Up today . . but, the day before a huge Jobs Report BMO tomorrow morning is what kept me out of the Markets today . . it could be a setup for a big fall tomorrow .. one never knows .. especially amid all of the Bullishness in a Bearish environment. . . . I don’t think I’ll be Trading tomorrow either .. unless there are Strong Signals that match the Jobs Report true meaning . . . here are my Annotated Charts for today:

I’m just showing a Daily Chart today to give perspective of where today’s move is in the bigger picture and how this week’s action looks visually . . . because of today’s Big Unemployment Report and tomorrow’s BMO Jobs Report, today’s move is hard to look to as fantastically Bullish given yesterday’s weak move .. and the uncertainty of tomorrow makes me glad to be All in Cash . . . I will re-evaluate tomorrow night after all of the unknown action is over . . . we should have a clearer picture then:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0635.ET
World Markets are mostly Up Big (over 1%) .. US Markets/Futures are Slightly higher.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.40 / 105.30
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.30, then 41.50, then 41.70-41.90, then 42.20-42.30, then 42.50, then 42.70
QQQQ Support is at 41.00, then 40.7x – 40.6x, then40.4x- 40.3x, then 40.20, then 39.50, then 39.0x

There are some Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0700.ET . . ending with the biggest = the FOMC announcement at 1415.ET . . . late morning / early afternoon Trading will be positioning for that announcement . . afternoon Trading will be based on the announcement.  The big topic is when will the Fed start withdrawing liquidity in its hugely expanded balance sheet? .. and .. does the Fed have insight on the strength of the recovery that we have not heard about yet?

I expect QQQQ to start out rising some today during the Open … all dependent on the BMO News . . .  The very key price levels today are those first areas of Resistance around 41.30 – 41.50 . . . breaking and Holding above them would temporarily stop the Bearish mood. If the break higher occurs on a News Event, then I would take it seriously . . otherwise I am still looking for Shorting opportunities.

Gold made an all time high yesterday . . this is something to watch as well . . especially if the Stock Market shows any weakness from here.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Another “no change” day . . after two high-Volume “bottoming” days, we’ve had two low-Volume “hardly Up” days . . sure seems Bearish to me !?!
I did make some money today on the Down-move portion of the day . . . I’m really only Opening Down positions nowadays because of my Bearish bias . . . I always like to Trade with the Trend.
Here are my thoughts on the day:

1 – here is the Trade that could have been made today .. using the 5-min Chart . . . Note: I usually use the 1-min Chart to catch the Volume Alert early . . then I switch to my 2-, 3-, and 5- minute Charts to Trade and Monitor:

2 -here’s the 60-min Chart where we were looking for a Kiss to Short . . . didn’t turn out that way for the Intermediate-Term .. that’s why I just Scalped a Trade today .. no overnight Hold:

3 -on this Daily Chart with OE Pivots you can see the overall Bearish looking action for the day:

4 – this Daily Chart shows another view of the action . . . still slightly Bearish, but this shows how much Up room there is to go and STILL be Bearish:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0715.ET
World Markets are Down Big (over 1%) .. US Markets/Futures are Down almost 1%.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 40.82/ 103.50
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.00, then 41.30, then 41.50, then 41.70-41.90, then 42.20-42.30, then 42.50, then 42.70
QQQQ Support is at 40.7x – 40.6x, then40.4x- 40.3x, then 40.20, then 39.50, then 39.0x

There is some Economic Events out this morning starting at 0745.ET . . not Big Market Movers, but be aware of them so you are not fooled by unexpected price action.

I expect QQQQ to start out falling then rising some today after the Open … all dependent on the BMO News . . .  The very key price level today is that first area of Support around 40.70 . . . breaking and Holding below that would continue the current Bearish mood.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Not much QQQQ movement today, but possibly significant in that we did not get a Drop . . and in fact got a lift in the afternoon . . . . we won’t know the significance until tomorrow . . . . . … Kiss and Short OR continue to move higher:

1 -on the Short-Term (15-min) Chart, QQQQ made a break higher and above the MAs . . . tomorrow’s action will be crucial to future Short-Term direction:

2 – the Intermediate-Term (60-min) Chart shows a similar pattern, but with less of a break higher . . . the same guidelines hold true though, watch tomorrow’s action versus the MAs:

3 – this Daily view shows the Bigger Picture of the recent break-Down . . . a Drop & Hold below yesterday’s Low should start another leg Down . . . whereas a Rise & Hold above the first dashed-pink-line could be the start of a turn higher:

Don’t forget to comeback to this Blog tomorrow morning to read my BMO Commentary for tomorrow’s Trading Plan.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0720.ET
Far East Markets are Down Big .. Europe is slightly Mixed and US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.12 / 104.30
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.00, then 41.30, then 41.50, then 41.70-41.90, then 42.20-42.30, then 42.50, then 42.70
QQQQ Support is at 40.7x – 40.6x, then40.4x- 40.3x, then 40.20, then 39.50, then 39.0x

There is some Economic Events out this morning starting at 1000.ET . . not Big Market Movers, but be aware of them so you are not fooled by unexpected price action.

I expect QQQQ to start out rising today after the Open . . . without news until 1000.ET, she’ll probably drift higher for a little while and then have some reaction to he news.  The very key price level today is that first area of Support around 40.70 . . . breaking and Holding below that would continue the current Bearish Trend.

For those of you interested in following good Elliott Wave articles, here again is an excellent feed to monitor.
Also can be seen directly at ElliottsWave.

AMC Commentary  [protect]

QQQQ ended up to be a non-event today . . . except it went Down Big, then Up Big, and then Down near where it started.  The day ended as a Doji-candle which means tomorrow’s direction is unknown . . but should be Big. Here are my thoughts on today’s action:

1 – we’re seeing another possible KISS to Short on the 15-min Chart:

2 – the 60-min Chart shows a similar potential . . as well as a perfect Target hit:

3 -more of the same with different details from a different view on a 60-min Chart:

4 -a Daily View . . nice stuff . . . how nice it is to be able to predict price action . . . for the near-term, we will almost certainly fill that Gap below us now . . . but we might get a Bounce first . . . we’ll see what tomorrow morning brings us:

Make sure you check back in tomorrow morning to read the BMO Commentary and a finalized Trading Plan.

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