ACTS Money Machine

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0730.ET
Far East Markets are Down Big .. European and US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 41.51 / 104.80
QQQQ Resistance is at 41.90, then 42.20-42.30, then 42.50, then 42.70
QQQQ Support is at 40.7x – 40.6x, then 40.3x

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting at 0830.ET . . so be careful!

My Trading Plan for today is shaping up just as I Posted last night in my AMC Commentary . . . the only thing that will change it are the Big Economic Events due out this morning at 0830.ET

AMC Commentary

The Market Bounced today as I predicted last night . . . [protect]

QQQQ Bounced back Up to hit and stop at some MAs and we had an “Inside Day” on the Daily Charts … usually pointing to a Big move in the next day or three.

These are my thoughts about today:

1 -this 5-min MSFT Chart shows my thinking on Microsoft today . . . I was just about to Open a PUT option position, when I got Signals that she would start rising . . . this is what I saw and why I left her alone:

2 -this 60-min QQQQ Charts shows how price rose right Up into the Longer-Term Moving Averages . . setting up a possible KISS Reversal tomorrow … prices can rise Up to around that 42.40 Congestion area just above the current price and if it fails, come crashing Down . . . this would still be within our KISS realm . . . moving higher than that would negate a possible KISS back Down:

3 -again prices moved between the same two Long-Term Pivot-Levels . . . hitting one as QQQQ Dropped and Bouncing Up right off of the lower Pivot and then moving Up and Closing right on the Upper Pivot . . . how’s that for know where the Targets are going to be! . . . also notice the Inside-Day on this Daily Chart:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0700.ET
World Markets are slightly mixed and US Markets/Futures are Up slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 43.33 / 108.60
QQQQ Resistance is at 43.30, then 43.70 – 43.80
QQQQ Support is at 42.80 – 42.90, then 42.70, then 42.4x

There is not much in the way of Economic Events out today . . . just some Bill Auctions . . . so be careful for low-Volume drift higher without much help from Technical Analysis.  MRVL Upped guidance this morning on a good outlook for chips . . . TLAB announces earnings at BMO this morning.

As is usual with a low-Volume day, I generally recommend just watching . . . no real Day-Trading opportunities . . for Swing- and Longer-Term Traders: today is a good day to adjust your positions, but not really enter new ones.

AMC Commentary  [protect]

There turned out to be decent Volume today and there was some intraday action that was Trade-able:

1 – the 5-min (VST) Chart . . with an added indicator (PVO) that I have found to be useful in implementing my Volume-Indicator Trading Strategy . . . peaks on the top-side coincide with rising-/spiking- Volume and then the crossover Down indicates that Volume has subsided and the Reversal is about to happen . . . use this with the matching CCI extremes as always before:

2- the 60-min Chart shows the toppiness of recent action as well as the importance of that 80-ma level . . if QQQQ can’t Hold above that level tomorrow, we should see lots of Down action:

3- this 60-min Chart shows that continued Range-Bound pattern .. it also shows the Supports along the way Down .. should it break-out that way:

4 -our favorite near-term levels … the November OE Pivot-Levels Chart shows us just how powerfully magnetic the levels are . . . nice Ranging action between the Pivot and R1 for the past week or two:

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Earnings: Is That REALLY What’s Driving The DJIA Higher?

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0735.ET
World Markets are mixed and US Markets/Futures are slightly Up.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 43.50 / 109.67
QQQQ Resistance and Support: use the values shown in the S&R boxes on the Annotated Charts I posted in my AMC Commentary last night and before.

Check out the Economic Events due out today . . . there is only the Existing Home Sales at 1000.ET along with some Fed speaking .. esp. Bernanke at 0830.ET.

The Plan is the same as it has been most of this week: watch the 43.00 lower boundary area . . . . should that fall, expect some further weakness today . . . allow for some Trading Down to the 42.95 area before getting too Bearish . . . and remember, if you miss the first Drop Down, there will be a rebound and test afterward to enter on.

AMC Commentary

oh yes! . . it was a great! Trading day for me  . . . . I didn’t really even watch QQQQ much today . . . I traded Microsoft (MSFT) by Selling the News! … Microsoft Released their Quarterly Earnings this morning BMO and beat expectations, but came in with lower Revenue than last year . . this piqued my interest as that told me that the EPS numbers were probably inflated by accounting, but lower Revenue indicated the reality was not great . . . and then their guidance left little to be admired . . . and I saw BMO that they were Up 10%! . . . so here is how I Traded Microsoft (MSFT) today:

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I used 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 8- minute Charts at various times throughout the day to get smaller and bigger pictures of very short-term action . . . here I am showing the 5-minute Chart which I used most often to guide me after Opening the Down positions (I used Nov $29 and $28 PUT options).

MSFT Opened Up way Big and immediately stalled .. black candle with a substantial wick .. that got me salivating about the Down-side .. PLUS, it was well out of the upper Bollinger-Band and on very high Volume and extreme CCI . . this is a Chart I use strictly for such Gap Open Magnet (GOM) Trades .. it helps me to see that price will be attracted back Down to the GAP. I then Held the Put Options as long as I kept getting lower highs (staying beneath previous high-levels .. green lines) and price stayed within the Down-sloping B-Bands . . . I eventually Opened then Banked Big Profits twice … over +20% each time:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0707.ET
World and US Markets/Futures are Down somewhat .. about 0.6%.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.05 / 105.20
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.50, then 42.6x, then 43.0x – 43.20
QQQQ Support is at 41.90 – 42.0x, then 41.40 – 41.60, then 40.80 – 41.00

There are Big Economic Events out this morning starting early and continuing all morning . . so watch out!

Stocks are forming patterns that warn the Bear Market that started 2 years ago is about to unveil its next destructive move down . . . so,  I am still looking to Short QQQQ Rallies as opposed to Buying Dips .. especially for any Holding of longer than a few hours . . . I see a major Drop coming soon … sometime within the month of October. … Use last night’s Chart-3 for break-out guidance.

Yesterday’s Market Action:

Stocks ended mixed Wednesday, after a roller coaster day. The Industrials fell 133 points early, then recovered all the losses mid-day, before closing down 29.92 points. The day’s price action formed a classic Hammer Candlestick pattern, which looks like a cross or “t.”
The NASDAQ 100 rose 1.32 points Wednesday, closing at 1,718.99. The Russell 2000 fell 6.17 points Wednesday, closing at 604.28. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 7.95 points Wednesday, closing at 418.65. October Gold rose back above 1,000, to 1,006.8. Silver rose to 16.65, while December Oil rose to 70.43. The Dollar fell 0.40 to 76.72. Bonds fell 8 ticks to 121^12. The VIX rose 0.42 to 25.61.

AMC Commentary [protect]

WoWser! . . . the Charts and Commentary say it all . . below:

1 – the 5-min System Chart shows how frustrating (and powerful)  the day was . . . there were times that the Reversal Up Signal seemed obvious . . . but the power Down was just too powerful . . . I think the Smart money jumped on Down today . . . tomorrow’s action will be critical for Trading in the following weeks:

2 – the 15-min Chart shows how our Support line was Broken . . it was why we kept saying to Short Rallies:

3 – the 60-min Chart we had drawn and posted last night shows the full aftermath:

4 – just as predicted . . . if the 38.2% retracement level was broken Down and Held, the 50% level would be the next Target … right on!

5-our Long-Term Pivot-Levels sure are powerful .. and predictive Targets:

6 -the October OE Pivot-Levels shows the Triangular break-out as well . . . I am just re-posting this same Chart I posted last night .. updated with today’s price-bar only . . . just to show my prediction from last night with today’s price-movement overlaid:

7 -this Chart was also posted one night very recently . . . look at how that Target was perfectly hit! . . . I am just re-posting this same Chart I posted previously .. updated with today’s price-bar only . . . just to show my prediction with today’s price-movement overlaid:

Well . . . a very nice week so far for this Bear . . . tomorrow will be very important in determining Trading for next week . . . I will post a Weekend Analysis with some thoughtfully Annotated Charts.

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0700.ET
World/US Markets are Down
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 42.17 / 105.96
QQQQ Resistance is at 42.62, then 43.0x
QQQQ Support is at 42.30, then 41.70, then 40.80, then 40.20

There are some Economic Events out this morning starting at 1000.ET . . Leading Indicators will be the Big one this morning at 1000.ET

Read my Commentary on the important Earnings Releases this week that will help determine overall Sector direction and Economic ramifications.

AMC Commentary [protect]

. . . and yet another low-Volume day . . I guess we need to treat these as the norm from now on and adjust “high-Volume” levels accordingly . . . also, the moves have been starting in the morning and ending an hour or two later and then mostly sideways the rest of the day . . . we should adjust our Trading accordingly . . around a news event and then Trade the CCI/Volume extremes.

1 -the 5-min Chart shows this action . . but without a high-Volume spike to key off of . . . maybe we need to start using “any” increase in Volume:

2 – the 15-min Chart shows the leveling off of momentum lately . . . it also shows our two break-out levels … 42.70 on the Up-side and the 89-ma on the Down-side:

3 – this Daily QQQQ Chart shows the new October monthly Option Expiration levels:

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BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0645.ET
Far East Markets are Up slightly and Europe is Down slightly to Big.
US early Trading and Futures are Down slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.75/101.71
QQQQ Resistance is at 40.50 – 40.70, then 40.80, then 41.00
QQQQ Support is at 40.15 – 40.0x, then 39.60 – 39.70, then 39.4x

There are Economic Events out today starting at 0745.ET that will affect the Markets.

Very key price levels for the Short-Term are the 39.67 Low of the last Swing Down and the XX-sma on my 60-min Chart of 39.80 . . . if QQQQ struggles to stay above these levels, our previously Posted Bearish scenarios will start to take hold. I think I am just going to sit out of Scalp-Trading today and watch . . it could be Wild and ugly with all of the little news events coming out today … I see Bullish head-fakes galore in this turning Bearish environment. . . . possibly a good time to start building those longer-term Bearish positions.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Well .. very nice Trading opportunity today using the System Charts.
QQQQ Opened and moved higher on low-Volume towards the Big 1000.ET ISM Report . . . so staying away until then was a good idea.
THEN, the ISM Report came out and was GOOD news . . . BUT, it was a “Sell the News” event as super high-Volume came in with price NOT moving higher .. a Signal to Short QQQQ (or Long QID or Long QQQQ Put options).

Here are the Annotated Charts for the day:

1 – the VVST (1-min) System Chart:

2 – the VST (5-min) System Chart showing the same Signals … notice how the Closes of each bar stayed below the 8-sma (red-line) all the way Down . . . it moving above that line is/was a sign of an “end” as well as the usual CCI(55) rise:

3 – the IT (60-min) System Chart also showing the Swings . . . the latest Counter Swing has broken below the previous Swing-Low and may be the first Swing of the Reversed direction .. Down. . . . we’ll have to see how tomorrow unfolds . . . watch for price to come Up and retest the  longer 55-sma … if she fails to get past it, I would look for a continued Swing Down . . . otherwise, I would just sit tight and let things play out for tomorrow:

4 – the September OE Pivots on a Daily QQQQ Chart . . . the Bearish Signals I’ve been posting about in recent days’ Charts have come to fruition . . . notice that OE Magnet! .. price went right Down and Close ON S1:

5 – the Long-Term Pivots for QQQQ . . . she touched 40.50 just to say “GoodBye” early today … then catapulted Down past the 39.60 Pivot:

6 – a new Helper Chart I’ve posted about rarely in the past . . . . it uses the USD:VIX ratio . . . for details, see Chart-2 from this past Weekend Analysis post:

SUMMARY

Tomorrow I will be watching for a failure of an Up-move to get past 40.10 as a Signal to Open Down positions . . . looking for a higher-Volume roll-Down from a high CCI level as the point to start Shorting.
If we get a runaway move at the Open in either direction, just step aside . . . it is never good to chase the Market. . . . Instead, if convinced that she will continue in that direction, wait for a pull-back in the opposite direction (a pause) in order to enter a position.

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