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Archive for the 'VVST / GOM' Category

04 Septoday’s trading

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0745.ET
World Markets are Up over 1% for the most part . . .
USA Markets/Futures are Up some as well.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.67/101.03
QQQQ Resistance is at 39.6x, then 39.8x, then 40.0x
QQQQ Support is at 39.40, then 39.1x, then at 39.00, then at 38.50, then at 38.30.
Use the Charts I posted last night as broader guides.

The Big Economic Event out this morning is at 0830.ET . . the Employment Numbers.

I have no real Plan for today as I expect there to be very low Volume and will not be Trading due to the higher risk/reward . . . I’m starting my holiday weekend early.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Up through the Resistance all morning … to the September OE Pivot … then sideways the rest of the day . . . the extremely Low-Volume kept me out from Trading in the morning and the setup I show in Chart-1 kept me out for the rest of the day . . so I just Relaxed.

1 – the 1-min VVST/GOM Chart shows the low morning Volume until lunch-time .. and then what happened that kept me Relaxing the rest of the day:

20090904_01min_Trading

2 – this 60-min QQQQ Chart shows the action of the past 2-days gets her back to the top of the recent Trading Range . . but not looking like she wants to keep going higher:

20090904_60min_RangeTrading

3 – this 60-min QQQQ Chart shows the Swing action … the recent high-Swing (~40.80) would provide Resistance if QQQQ made it that high again:

20090904_60min_SwingTrading

4 – the September OE Pivot levels . . QQQQ has Bounced Up from S1 and is now back at the Pivot again:

20090904_Daily_QQQQ_Sept_OE_PivotLines

PLAN — I will work on some Charts and a Plan for next week over the extended weekend . . . have a great! one everybody.

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01 Septoday’s trading

BMO Commentary

Go through the Morning Checklist to see how the Markets are currently doing and what Economic Events may affect the Markets today.

0645.ET
Far East Markets are Up slightly and Europe is Down slightly to Big.
US early Trading and Futures are Down slightly.
QQQQ/SPY are currently Trading at 39.75/101.71
QQQQ Resistance is at 40.50 – 40.70, then 40.80, then 41.00
QQQQ Support is at 40.15 – 40.0x, then 39.60 – 39.70, then 39.4x

There are Economic Events out today starting at 0745.ET that will affect the Markets.

Very key price levels for the Short-Term are the 39.67 Low of the last Swing Down and the XX-sma on my 60-min Chart of 39.80 . . . if QQQQ struggles to stay above these levels, our previously Posted Bearish scenarios will start to take hold. I think I am just going to sit out of Scalp-Trading today and watch . . it could be Wild and ugly with all of the little news events coming out today … I see Bullish head-fakes galore in this turning Bearish environment. . . . possibly a good time to start building those longer-term Bearish positions.

AMC Commentary [protect]

Well .. very nice Trading opportunity today using the System Charts.
QQQQ Opened and moved higher on low-Volume towards the Big 1000.ET ISM Report . . . so staying away until then was a good idea.
THEN, the ISM Report came out and was GOOD news . . . BUT, it was a “Sell the News” event as super high-Volume came in with price NOT moving higher .. a Signal to Short QQQQ (or Long QID or Long QQQQ Put options).

Here are the Annotated Charts for the day:

1 – the VVST (1-min) System Chart:

20090901_01min_Trading

2 – the VST (5-min) System Chart showing the same Signals … notice how the Closes of each bar stayed below the 8-sma (red-line) all the way Down . . . it moving above that line is/was a sign of an “end” as well as the usual CCI(55) rise:

20090901_05min_Trading

3 – the IT (60-min) System Chart also showing the Swings . . . the latest Counter Swing has broken below the previous Swing-Low and may be the first Swing of the Reversed direction .. Down. . . . we’ll have to see how tomorrow unfolds . . . watch for price to come Up and retest the  longer 55-sma … if she fails to get past it, I would look for a continued Swing Down . . . otherwise, I would just sit tight and let things play out for tomorrow:

20090901_60min_SwingTrading

4 – the September OE Pivots on a Daily QQQQ Chart . . . the Bearish Signals I’ve been posting about in recent days’ Charts have come to fruition . . . notice that OE Magnet! .. price went right Down and Close ON S1:

20090901_Daily_QQQQ_OE_Pivots

5 – the Long-Term Pivots for QQQQ . . . she touched 40.50 just to say “GoodBye” early today … then catapulted Down past the 39.60 Pivot:

20090901_Daily_QQQQ_LT_Pivots

6 – a new Helper Chart I’ve posted about rarely in the past . . . . it uses the USD:VIX ratio . . . for details, see Chart-2 from this past Weekend Analysis post:

20090901_USD_VIX_Helper

SUMMARY

Tomorrow I will be watching for a failure of an Up-move to get past 40.10 as a Signal to Open Down positions . . . looking for a higher-Volume roll-Down from a high CCI level as the point to start Shorting.
If we get a runaway move at the Open in either direction, just step aside . . . it is never good to chase the Market. . . . Instead, if convinced that she will continue in that direction, wait for a pull-back in the opposite direction (a pause) in order to enter a position.

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