By Elliott Wave International

If the word ‘fractal’ comes up at all in conversation, that conversation is probably being held in a mathematics department. However, anyone who is interested in the Wave Principle and how it applies to the stock market may have stumbled across the phrase “robust fractal.” If you want to know more about what it means in that context, here’s an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s primer on fractals that explains the connection.

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Excerpted from The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal
by Robert R. Prechter

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. In a series of books and articles published from 1938 to 1946, he described the stock market as a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similarly shaped at different scales.

Although Elliott came to his conclusions fifty years before the new science of fractals blossomed, he took a step that current observers of natural processes have yet to take. He explained not only that the progress of the market was fractal in nature but discovered and described the component patterns. The patterns that Elliott discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated and defined a number of patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named and illustrated the patterns. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns at the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle….

The Stock Market as a Robust Fractal
A classic example of a self-identical fractal is nested squares. One square is surrounded by eight squares of the same size, which forms a larger square, which is surrounded by eight squares of that larger size, and so on.

A classic example of an indefinite fractal is the line that delineates a seacoast. When viewed from space, a seacoast has a certain irregularity of contour. If we were to drop to ten miles above the earth, we would see only a portion of the seacoast, but the irregularity of contour of that portion would resemble that of the whole. From a hundred feet up in a balloon, the same thing would be true.

Scientists today recognize financial markets’ price records as fractals, but they presume them to be of the indefinite variety. Elliott undertook a meticulous investigation of financial market behavior and found something different. He described the record of stock market prices as aspecifically patterned fractal yet with variations in its quantitative expression. I call this type of fractal, which has properties of both self-identical and indefinite fractals, a robust fractal. Robust fractals permeate life forms. Trees, for example, are branching robust fractals, as are animals, circulatory systems, bronchial systems and nervous systems. The stock market record belongs in the category of life forms since it is a product of human social interaction.

How Is the Stock Market Patterned?

Figure 1 shows Elliott’s idea of how the stock market is patterned. If you study this depiction, you will see that each component, or “wave,” within the overall structure subdivides in a specific way by one simple rule: If the wave is heading in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into five waves. If the wave is heading in the opposite direction as the wave of one larger degree, then it subdivides into three waves (or a variation). These are called motive and corrective waves, respectively. Each of these waves adheres to specific traits and tendencies of construction, as described in Elliott Wave Principle (1978).

Waves subdivide this way down to the smallest observable scale, and the entire process continues to develop larger and larger waves as time progresses. Each wave’s degree may be identified numerically by relative size on a sort of social Richter scale.

Want to Know More About Fractals and the Stock Market? Then read the whole special report, called “The Human Social Experience Forms a Fractal.” It’s free of charge, so long as you are a member of Club EWI, which gives you access to many free reports that explain Elliott wave analysis and the Wave Principle.

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Mainstream financial analysts always look for ways to explain market action through news stories and events. Conventional wisdom states that news and inter-market correlations cause market booms and busts, but such explanations rely on selective presentation of the data. In this video, Elliott Wave International’s Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Editor Mark Galasiewski shows you how Elliott wave analysis was able to predict Hong Kong’s late ’90s mania and its aftermath in real time — without looking at the news or the market’s “fundamentals.”

Watch More about the Power of Elliott Wave Analysis in this FREE Video

Discover how Elliott wave analysis gives you a consistently logical explanation
– and debunk one of the major myths of what caused the Asian Financial Crisis
– in the free video, “The Real-Time Power of Elliott Wave Analysis:
Debunking the Myths of the Asian Financial Crisis.” Access Your FREE Video Now.

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by Elliott Wave International

While many people spend time yearning for the financial markets to turn back up, a rare few have looked back in time to compare historical markets with the current situation – and then delivered a clear-eyed view of the future informed by knowledge of the past. One who has is Robert Prechter. When he thinks about markets and wave patterns, he goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and — most tellingly for our time now — the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.

Here is an excerpt from the EWI Independent Investor eBook, which answers the question: How close to the bottom are we?
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Originally written by Robert Prechter for The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2009

Some people contact us and say, “People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom.” The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for less than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But market sentiment over those years was a historical anomaly. The annual dividend payout from stocks reached its lowest level ever: less than half the previous record. The P/E ratio reached its highest level ever: double the previous record. The price-to-book value ratio went into the stratosphere, as did the ratio between corporate bond yields and the same corporations’ stock dividend yields.

During nine and a half of those years, from October 1998 to March 2008, optimism dominated so consistently that bulls outnumbered bears among advisors (per the Investors Intelligence polls) for 481 out of 490 weeks. Investors got so used to this period of euphoria and financial excess that they have taken it as the norm.

With that period as a benchmark, the moderate slippage in optimism since 2007 does appear as a severe change. But observe a subtle irony: When commentators agree that investors are too bearish, they say so to justify being bullish. Thus, as part of the crowd, they are still seeking rationalizations for their continued optimism, and one of their best excuses is that everyone else is bearish. This would be reasoning, not rationalization, if it were true.

But is the net reduction in optimism since 2000/2007 in fact enough to indicate a market bottom? For the rest of this issue, we will update the key indicators from Conquer the Crash that so powerfully signaled a historic top in the making. When we are finished, you will know whether or not the market is at bottom.

Figure 1 updates our picture of Supercycle and Grand Supercycle-degree periods of prosperity and depression. The top formed in the past decade is the biggest since 1720, yet, as you can see, the decline so far is small compared to the three that preceded it. There is a lot more room to go on the downside.

Figure 2 updates the Dow’s dividend yield. Over the past nine years, it has improved nicely, from 1.3 percent to 3.7 percent, near its level at previous market tops. If companies’ dividends were to stay the same, a 50 percent drop in stock prices from here would bring the Dow’s yield back into the area where it was at the stock market bottoms of 1942, 1949, 1974 and 1982. But of course, dividends will not stay the same.

Companies are cutting dividends and will cut more as the depression deepens. So, the falling stock market is chasing an elusive quarry in the form of an attractive dividend yield. This is a downward spiral that will not end until prices get ahead of dividend cuts and the Dow’s dividend yield goes above that of 1932, which was 17 percent (or until dividends fall so close to zero that the yield is meaningless).

Get the whole story about how much farther we have to go to a bear-market bottom by reading the rest of this article from EWI’s Independent Investor eBook. The fastest way to read it AND the six new chapters in EWI’s Independent Investor eBook is to become a member of Club EWI.

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The euro’s recent loss has been the dollar’s gain, which means that it’s not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn’t such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter’s May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.

For
more information from Robert Prechter, download
a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.

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As you well know, Europe’s debt crisis has been a mainstay in the news — and in the minds of investors — over the past few months. The Greek bailout has calmed some nerves, but it has failed to recognize the true cause for the crisis, according to a new report from Elliott Wave International.

Back in February, when the modern-day Greek tragedy appeared to be contained by all media accounts, our friends at EWI anticipated yet another wave of debt woes across Europe. Here’s what EWI’s European chief market analyst, Brian Whitmer, wrote on Feb. 26:

“Greece’s woes aren’t over, and neither are its neighbors, meaning that more surprises are sure to come.”

Whitmer and his colleagues have been anticipating and tracking the growing debt crisis in Greece, Spain, Portugal and other European nations. Their analysis is so valuable and so timely right now that they’ve decided to give you their latest paid analysis on Europe in a new free report, “European Debt: An Elliott Wave Perspective.”

Their explosive five-page report is jam-packed with forecasts and analysis originally published for EWI’s paying subscribers. It shows you the real-time power of Elliott wave analysis in European markets, and it reveals what’s next for the euro and European solidarity.

For the REAL story on Europe — independent from media assumptions and conjecture — read this prescient new report from EWI.

Download your free report, “European Debt: An Elliott Wave Perspective,” now.

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by Nico Isaac

For Elliott Wave International’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE– and no, we’re not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading “style,” as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.

Jeffrey himself is, and always has been, a “trend” trader; meaning: he uses the Wave Principle as his primary tool, along with a few secondary means of select technical studies. Such as: Bar Patterns. And, of all of those, Jeffrey counts one bar pattern in particular as his absolute, all-time favorite: the 3-in-1.

Here’s the gist: The 3-in-1 bar pattern occurs when the price range of the fourth bar (named, the “set-up” bar) engulfs the highs and lows of the preceding three bars. When prices move above the high or below the low of the set-up bar, it often signals the resumption of the larger trend. The point where this breach occurs is called the “trigger bar.” On this, the following diagram offers a clear illustration:

For a real-world example of the 3-1 formation in the recent history of a major commodity market, take a look at this close-up of Cotton from Jeffrey Kennedy’s February 5, 2010, Daily Futures Junctures.

As you can see, a classic 3-in-1 bar pattern emerged in Cotton at the very start of the new year. Then, within days of January, the trigger bar closed below the low of the set-up bar, signaling the market’s return to the downside. Immediately after, cotton prices plunged in a powerful selloff to four-month lows.

Then February arrived and with it, the end of cotton’s decline. In the same chart, you can see how Jeffrey used the Wave Principle to calculate a potential downside target for the market at 66.33. This area marked the point where Wave (5) equaled wave (1), a common relationship. Since then, a winning streak in cotton has carried prices to new contract highs.

What this example tells you is that by tag-teaming the Wave Principle with Bar Patterns, you can have a higher objective chance of pinning the volatile markets to the ground.

To learn more, read Jeffrey Kennedy’s exclusive, free 15-page report titled “How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Set-ups,” where he shows you 6 bar patterns, his personal favorites.

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By Nico Isaac

When EWI President Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of “Conquer The Crash” in 2002, the idea that the United States would enter a period of what news authorities coined “economic Armageddon” several years later was unheard of.

Flashing back, the major blue-chip averages were rebounding off a historic bottom, the notorious dot.com bust was making way for a powerful housing boom, Fannie Mae’s chief executive was named “the most confident CEO in America,” then President George Bush was enjoying a 60%-plus approval rating, Gulf War II hadn’t begun yet, and when it did, a “quick and easy victory” was supposed to follow, and the Federal Reserve was largely credited with slaying the big, bad bear via the sharp blade of monetary policy.
Five years later, the tables turned. The U.S. housing market endured its worst downturn since the Great Depression; Fannie Mae’s CEO was ousted amidst a mortgage crisis of incalculable damage. George W. Bush left the oval office with a record low approval rating of 25%, and the expected “cakewalk” victory in Iraq became a “quagmire” and national dilemma.

Anticipating these and other “shocks” to the global system is the unparalleled achievement of “Conquer The Crash.” Here, the following excerpts from the book put any doubt to rest:

Housing: “What screams bubble – giant historic bubble – in real estate is the system-wide extension of massive amount of credit.” And “Home equity loans are brewing a terrible disaster.”

Bonds: “The unprecedented mass of vulnerable bonds extant today is on the verge of a waterfall of downgrading.”

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: “Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when the stock prices and bond ratings collapse.”

Politics: “Look for nations and states to split and shrink.” And — “The Middle East should be a complete disaster.”

Credit Expansion Schemes “have always ended in a bust.” And — “Like the discomfort of drug addiction withdrawal, the discomfort of credit addiction withdrawal cannot be avoided.”

Banks: “Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.” (176)

If the tools in Bob Prechter’s analytical toolbox, namely Elliott wave analysis and socionomics (Prechter’s new science of social prediction based on the Wave Principle), enabled him to foresee these “sea changes” in the economic, social, and political landscape — the only question is: What else do the pages of the “Conquer The Crash” reveal?
Well, your opportunity to find out just got a whole lot easier. Right now, you can download the 8-chapter Conquer the Crash Collection, free. It includes:

Chapter 10: Money, Credit And The Federal Reserve Banking System
Chapter 13: Can The Fed Stop Deflation?
Chapter 23: What To do With Your Pension Plan
Chapter 28: How To Identify A Safe Haven
Chapter 29: Calling In Loans & Paying Off Debt
Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run A Business
Chapter 32: Should You Rely On The Government To Protect You?
Chapter 33: Short List of Imperative ‘Do’s’ & ‘Don’ts”

Visit Elliott Wave International to learn more about the free Conquer the Crash Collection.

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