Posts by Tictac
Nice Ride!
Here are charts from the Simply 5% System . . . the same charts we posted two weeks ago that said “Bear Flags Everywhere.”
See what happened after our Bearish forecasts:
Bear Flags Everywhere
There has been a lot of chop this week. But all the chop is producing is one big bear flag on the indices. Not much in the Simply 5% System tells us to be long, except for Gold. This is fine because it’s just as easy to make money going down as it is going up.
Murky Waters
There has been a big change in the intraday charts, but daily charts remain on a sell. There is no way to know how Hurricane Irene will impact the markets on Monday. Most of the time a pilot can not see what lies ahead in his path. He maneuvers a plane based on trusting the panel he is reading in the cockpit. When the information on the panel changes, he adjusts the direction of the plane. Even in flying on a straight navigational path, the pilot has to continually make adjustments because of variables in weather. We are no different. More...
Louise Yamada Speaks
If you are not acquainted with the name Louise Yamada, let us introduce you. Here is a brief bio:
Louise Yamada is Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA) founded October 2005. Previously Louise was Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup). Louise has been a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor poll, and was the top-ranked market technician in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 prior to her departure from Citigroup.
At LYA Louise has made major calls on: The onset of the relative strength decline of the Financial sector (with reports starting March More...
Now What?
The market has gotten a bounce, but as you can see from the spreadsheet, the ETFs are saying CASH is a position. And while the 60 and 30 minute stocks are on a buy signal, they are barely on a buy. So caution is warranted until we see what Monday brings. If you use the Simply 5% System, just trade when the signal changes. Yes, it really is that simple.
American Scary
Many traders were a little unnerved this week and the regular Joe is probably freaking out this weekend. Big, but expected news this morning with the US debt downgraded. China is also flexing it’s muscle today in the news, letting the US know that enough is enough. However, if you use Simply 5%, you were not unnerved and you certainly are not freaking out. Most importantly, you are NOT losing money. We told you last weekend there was no surprise, the signals had already triggered. Here are some charts showing the Short- and Long- Signals that our More...
No Surprise Here
Everything is Down in the Short-Term but lots are still Hold Uppers in the Medium-Term:
Chess or Checkers?
When you play chess, you have to think a few moves ahead and have contingencies based on possible moves your opponent might make. Your mind must go through the process of: “If he does this, then I’ll do that …. but if he does that, then I’ll do this.” It can be a great exercise of patience and cause and effect. Just think about how our society would be different if we played an hour of chess with our children each week. Hmmmm……
So how does this relate to trading? Well, this is the exact type of thinking you must More...
Watching BIDU
We have an interesting chart with BIDU. Not only does it trend well with the Simply 5% System, which makes it very profitable to trade; it is near it’s all time high. Earnings is July 23. So it may run up to resistance around 155 into earnings. In fact, the run began on the 30 minute chart Friday. Watch BIDU around 155. If it breaks up, it could really run, as there will be no overhead resistance. But it could also be a double top, which would be very sweet to have Puts on. Either way the Simply 5% System More...
Unemployment Rate Has Nothing To Do With S&P-500
Logic tells us that if unemployment had a direct bearing on the market, the $SPX would be closer to 600 than all time highs. I don’t like it, because it means that beyond the grandstanding, the government really has no incentive to let the free market create jobs. For having the greatest minds and most innovation in the world, all you hear are crickets chirping when it comes to ideas on how to get out of this mess and create jobs.
What A Week!
The firework show definitely started early on Wall Street this week. What made the $INDU gain over 650 points in a week? Why is gold pulling back? Will the dollar strengthen now? Will the $SPX hit a new high? Are the markets being manipulated on this low volume?
These are questions posted on boards this week. I don’t have the answers and neither does anyone else. Looking for these answers won’t help you make money.
If you look back to the last spreadsheet posted June 25, AMZN, MCP, and BIDU had already turned green on the minute timeframes. In fact, More...
Is This How You’re Feeling?
Between Greece and Bernanke this week, I think traders are ready to pull their hair out. Good thing we don’t trade on our feelings! The Simply 5% Trading System has been short on the TNA Daily since May 13 around $84. It’s now trading around $74.
Same ole, same ole
Not much change. SPX closed about where is was on Monday. Simply 5% has no reason to go long on anything. AGQ is a possibility if support holds here and it turns up.
When I was looking through the charts, the song “Same As It Ever Was,” by Talking Heads went through my mind. Found this video on a search for it. Funny.
Looking Back
In revisiting the past spreadsheets, I would like you to focus on the Daily signals. It is clear that this down move was no surprise to people using the Simply 5% System. The transition was between May 7 and May 14. The Daily showed you the trend, which was down. So if you wanted to trade the minute charts with the trend, you would have only taken short trades at the signal. Let me show you what I mean using a 30 minute chart.
BIDU had a down Daily signal on May 11. The 30 minute chart gave down signals More...
15 Min – BIDU
I mentioned this Short-Trade for Monday over the weekend . . .
this Signal was given by our Simply 5% Stock Trading System.
WoW! . . a nice 1-day double!
Hmmmm, do you think the tow truck will pull us back up?
I said last weekend that it felt like the market was walking on the ridge. The market has definitely slipped and the Simply 5% System minute charts showed exactly when and where to go short. I’ll show you on some charts where the signals were.
Also last weekend, the spreadsheet showed that ERX and AGQ Daily were about to go to a CASH position, which they have.
You might want to watch the 15 minute charts for MCP and BIDU Monday morning. MCP 15 min chart just turn short at the close today and BIDU More...
Walking the Ridge
This is how the market feels to me right now. One slip, and it can be a l-o-n-g way down. And yet this market finds it’s footing over and over again. It doesn’t matter why. Ours is not to reason why, our is to make money regardless.
We can see from the weekly spreadsheet that the minute charts have bounced back up right on the edge of turning the Daily charts green. Which way will the market go? I don’t know, LOL! You have to get to the point where the not knowing is comfortable. We are at a More...
Predictive Powers?
Nah! No predictive powers using the Simply 5% Trading System. The Daily charts are short on everything, except AMZN. Perhaps the BIDU, GDX and ERX Daily charts will go long this week because every other time frame for them already have. But there is no way I would go long any of them on a Daily time frame on the HOPE that they change direction. There really is no reason to jump the gun or front load when trading. Traders think they need to be like Yogi, ”smarter than the average bear,” to make a profit. This is simply More...
Speaking of AMZN
The Simply 5% Trading System gave a “Sell Short” Signal on Amazon and you could have bought AMZN Put Options and Profited greatly:
Simply 5% System + Knowledge of Options = Powerful
More of the Same
As you can see, not much has changed from last week. The only stock that has some strength is AMZN, but of course that may change on Monday. I’m only showing you what my system is telling me right now……because that is all I know. You will hear me strain this point over and over and over. It is like standing against the tide at times. If you are interested in the market, you know every financial show, website, or chat forum push predictions. What’s going to happen next week? This summer? 4th quarter? 2012? Blah, blah, blah. Does it really help you make money?
Someone asked about the reality of returns on the stockcharts.com page. This tells me that some of you may not be familiar with trading options, which is primarily what those of us at Stocksdoc prefer to use in trading. Options are a double edged sword. The reward is high, but the risk is high. There are many good books on options that you can find on Amazon. This is how I learned, just by reading a book and paper trading. I thought I had found the greatest thing on earth when I started reading about options back in 2002. I couldn’t get over the fact that I could make money when a stock went down without having to have the capital to short a stock. On a very basic level, when a stock goes up I buy a Call and when a stock goes down I buy a Put. Let’s look at BIDU since it changed last week from cash to short.
This chart is saying that at the signal on a 30 minute chart, the May 130 strike was .95 cents. As you can see from the option chart, the high on Friday was 2.77. The Simply 5% System that I use will not buy at the lowest price and get out at the highest profit. My objective is to get a healthy gain between the two extremes.
You can find option charts at Marketwatch.com. Feel free to check my numbers to see if I’m telling the truth on any of the stockcharts.com page.
